NYM
Mets
SP: Scott (3-1)
2
MIL
Brewers
SP: Henderson (3-1)
4
WSH
Nationals
SP: Cavalli (6-4)
1
COL
Rockies
SP: Hughes (0-1)
0
CIN
Reds
SP: Singer (4-9)
2
SEA
Mariners
SP: Hancock (6-4)
1
ATH
Athletics
SP: Jump (3-5)
1
ARI
Diamondbacks
SP: Kelly (7-8)
2
STL
Cardinals
SP: Dobbins (1-1)
0
LAA
Angels
SP: Detmers (3-6)
0
LAD
Dodgers
SP: Lauer (4-5)
5-7
PHI
Phillies
SP: Nola (3-7)
6-7
MIN
Twins
SP: Ober (7-3)
6-6
CLE
Guardians
SP: Cecconi (4-6)
7-5
PIT
Pirates
SP: Chandler (3-8)
8-4
NYY
Yankees
SP: Fried (4-3)
7-6
TB
Rays
SP: Jax (5-7)
6-8
TOR
Blue Jays
SP: Fisher (3-3)
4-8
BAL
Orioles
SP: Bradish (6-9)
7-5
BOS
Red Sox
SP: Rivera (0-0)
13-0
SD
Padres
SP: King (6-7)
7-6
ATL
Braves
SP: Pérez (6-6)
6-7
PIT
Pirates
SP: Keller (6-7)
🏆
5
NYY
Yankees
SP: Cole (3-5)
3
BAL
Orioles
SP: Kremer (1-2)
3
BOS
Red Sox
SP: Bennett (6-3)
🏆
6
SF
Giants
SP: Roupp (7-8)
4
KC
Royals
SP: Lugo (3-6)
🏆
5
DET
Tigers
SP: Montero (6-5)
8-4
CHC
Cubs
SP: Rea (7-6)
8-4
CHW
White Sox
SP: Kay (6-4)
7-5
TEX
Rangers
SP: Alexander (1-1)
6-6
MIA
Marlins
SP: Alcantara (10-5)
4-8
HOU
Astros
SP: Lambert (8-5)
5-7
1 (25%)
4 (100%)
Brewers (-138)
Confidence 61 %:
Priced Milwaukee around 61% to win, fair near -156, versus an executable -138. The market appears to be giving substantial respect to Scott and the Mets' recent away record, but the broader team profile still favors Milwaukee: 63-37 record, +1.36 run differential per game, 5.10 runs per game, 3.74 allowed, top-4 offense, top-2 defense, and a comparable probable starter in Logan Henderson with a 2.97 ERA. Rest and travel are neutral, the indoor setting removes weather volatility, and the Brewers' run prevention/bullpen profile is materially stronger than a Mets team allowing 4.74 runs per game with a 4.27 staff ERA. The edge is not massive, but -138 is short of our fair price by enough margin to clear the desk threshold despite lineup uncertainty.
Red Sox (-132)
Confidence 60 %:
Desk price makes Boston 60.0% to win, fair -150, versus executable -136 implying 57.6%. The market appears slightly light on Boston because the Red Sox have the materially better run-prevention profile: 3.55 team ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .681 opponent OPS and 3.77 runs allowed per game versus Baltimore's 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .731 opponent OPS and 4.73 runs allowed. The probable starter matchup also points home, with Jake Bennett listed at 2.35 ERA over 9 starts against Dean Kremer at 4.15 ERA over 5 starts. Baltimore's offense and lineup uncertainty keep this from being a bigger position, but at -136 the price is better than our fair number by enough to clear a modest MLB edge gate while spreads and totals are either efficiently priced or too thin.