Confidence 51 %: Priced from the market first, Dodgers +116 implies 46.3%. My fair price is Dodgers 51.0%, roughly -104, because the full-team run profile is materially better than the current moneyline suggests: Los Angeles is 63-37 with a +1.55 run differential per game, 5.17 runs scored per game, 3.62 allowed, the No. 3 offense and No. 1 defense, while Philadelphia is 55-45 with a slightly negative run differential at -0.13 and a 19th-ranked offense. Wrobleski is also not a weak underdog starter in the provided data, listed at 10-2 with a 2.69 ERA, so the market appears to be giving Philadelphia a larger home/Wheeler premium than I can justify. The public profile supports that possibility: home ML shows 70% public with a sharply negative sharp-public delta, suggesting the Phillies price may be inflated by public demand. At +116, the quoted return creates about 10.2% estimated EV versus my fair probability, which is enough to clear the edge threshold despite lineup uncertainty and the starter-context conflict.